Will Bitcoin’s near-60% dominance surge translate into a breakout above $100K with the help of November’s market-shaping events, or will unexpected factors derail BTC’s upward journey?
BTC dominance holds strong amid market shifts
As autumn peaks, Bitcoin’s Bitcoin
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Bitcoin market dominance—the percentage of the total crypto market cap it holds—is creating an intriguing scenario. Currently, at around 59.7%, a level last reached in April 2021, it appears set to cross the 60% threshold.
As of Oct. 28, Bitcoin’s price has risen by nearly 2.5% in the past 24 hours, pushing it to around $69,000. Now, it’s inching closer to the $70,000 milestone — a “psychological resistance” level that could shape market sentiment.
This rise in Bitcoin’s dominance supports the idea that we’re in a “Bitcoin Season.” The Altcoin Season Index, which currently sits at a low of 25, shows that only 25% of the top 100 non-stablecoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last three months. On this scale of 1 to 100, a score of 25 or below signals Bitcoin Season.
What’s particularly interesting is that this surge in Bitcoin’s dominance aligns with some major upcoming events. First, the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 could be monumental for crypto.
BTC ETFs closing in on major milestones
With November’s calendar packed with market-shifting events, Bitcoin ETFs are nearing a milestone that could further solidify Bitcoin’s standing in the financial ecosystem.
As U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approach a combined 1 million BTC holdings, traders are eyeing potential tailwinds to drive the market higher.
Currently, these ETFs hold around 977,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $67.4 billion — about 5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap of $1.36 trillion.
Election odds and what they mean for Bitcoin’s future
With the U.S. presidential election just days away, the crypto community is assessing the potential impact of each candidate’s victory on Bitcoin.
According to Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, Republican Donald Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning, backed by $720.9 million in bets, while Democrat Kamala Harris has a 33.9% chance, with $456.1 million wagered on her victory.
Similarly, Kalshi’s data places Trump’s odds at 62% and Harris’s at 38%.
However, polling data from the New York Times offers a contrasting view: Harris holds a narrow national lead with 49% support compared to Trump’s 48%, marking her slimmest lead since August, according to Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst.