As U.S. votes, Bitcoin flirts with $70k — which way will it break?

As the Fed meeting and elections loom, could Bitcoin finally surge past $70k, or are bearish forces too strong to let BTC rise?

BTC teeters on the edge

With the U.S. presidential elections just hours away, the crypto market is on edge, watching every tick of Bitcoin’s Bitcoin

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Bitcoin price as it inches toward the critical $70k mark.

As of Nov. 4, BTC is facing new resistance at the $70,000 level. Not long ago — on Oct. 29 — Bitcoin briefly soared to $73-74k, only to see bearish sentiment pull it back.

The stakes are high, not only because of the elections but also due to an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on Nov. 6-7, where further economic cues are expected.

Interestingly, Republican Donald Trump currently holds a 59% chance of winning as per Polymarket odds, down from a high of 66% on Oct. 30. Bitcoin’s movements appear closely intertwined with these shifting election predictions.

Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has seen her odds rise from 33% to 42% as of Nov. 4, just hours before Americans head to the polls. A Trump win has been touted as bullish for crypto, adding another layer of anticipation.

Key triggers for Bitcoin’s price ahead

Crypto markets are likely to remain volatile as they await election results, but history suggests a pattern – Bitcoin has rallied after every U.S. election since 2009. 

While short-term reactions can vary, past data shows that BTC’s election-day price has never been revisited, with peaks typically occurring within a year. 

ETF inflows and liquidations paint a mixed picture

As we edge closer to the U.S. elections, Bitcoin is showing mixed signals. October 2024 wrapped up with BTC posting a modest 10.76% gain — considerably lower than its impressive 28.52% rally in October 2023, hinting that investors are proceeding with caution, likely waiting for more clarity on the election outcome.

In the past 24 hours leading up to Nov. 4, the market witnessed significant liquidations, with a total of $193 million in positions wiped out. 

Is Bitcoin headed for a major move post-election?

As Bitcoin hangs at a critical level, the coming days could be crucial for its next big price shift. 

Some traders, like Daan Crypto Trades, believe Bitcoin is primed for a major swing. According to Daan, “There is a good probability that price will see at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends up winning the election.”